Good Read on Modeling Social Emergent Phenomena - But Still Not There Yet!

Philip Ball - Critical Mass

The most important thing we can do right now - given the huge changes ahead of us - both in society, the world, and technology - is to get some sort of "handle" on what's coming up. By that, I mean a good set of models.

And as a result, I'm on a search for good models. Those that I know, those that are new. Those that make sense, and those that don't. (We need to relegate them to the "don't work" bin - but we need to know what we're relegating where.)

I'm starting to re-invigorate my modeling, and to connect with others about this. And along these lines, a dear colleague recommended one of his favorite books - Philip Ball's Critical Mass. I've had a good look at the Amazon "Look Inside" feature, which offers both the intro and first chapter, and the notes/references at the end.



Overall this book is great - I'm going to get a copy (from my public library, of course!) - but - it just doesn't go far enough.

Don't get me wrong. I'm all in favor of books that lay the groundwork and set the stage. Critical Mass definitely serves this need. However, we'll need to actually go beyond what is offered and discussed here to get what we really need right now: A robust set of very basic but useful models, with a clear set of what models apply to what situations, what assumptions and constraints have to be made, how we interpret the model variables, and what the model parameters actually mean.

And oh yes. This is what differentiates this new set of models and modeling tools from the previous generation. These models need to deal with nonlinear and (fairly often) non-equilibrium systems.

That said, Critical Mass looks well worth the read, and I've already looked up several of the references, and either read them online or plan to get the books.

Good job, Philip! And thank you!